By Dr. Hooman Peimani

Head, Energy Security & Geopolitics

Energy Studies Institutes, National University of Singapore

Today, there is no question that the pattern of energy consumption relying mainly on fossil energy is not sustainable for its destructive impact on the environment. Yet, evidence does not support that replacing such energy with renewables, including clean energy, will be eminent. Nor is there any strong indication to that effect in the foreseeable future. In fact, renewables will account for a fraction of global energy production in 2030, although the available reliable sources have different projections. According to IEA's Reference Case, renewables (including traditional forms of biomass) will account 14% of primary energy demand in 2030.¹ However, EIA's Reference Case projects that renewable (excluding traditional forms of biomass) will occupy 10.9% of total energy use in 2030.² This is the outcome of the availability of still deposits of proven fossil energy despite predictions as to their rapid deleption. In fact, the size of these resources has been expanding thanks to many discovers of new reservoirs in just about all known fossil energy-production countries and in countries with no such tradition such as Cuba and Vietnam. Geological evidence suggest the existence of more resources while the advancing extraction technology and mining now make possible accessing the previously impossible onshore and offshore fields. The availiability of fossil energy has simply weakened if not killed although, in cases, the incentive to switch to renewable by reducing on a systematic manner reliance on fossil energy. Despite difference in estimates, the meagre projected global rates of growth of the renewable substantiate this claim. Thus, the IEA Reference Scenario projects annual growth of renewable energy use of 2.3% between 2006 and 2015 and of 1.8% from 2015 to 2030.³ the EIA Reference Case estimate that renewable energy use will grow at 4.5% per annum from 2006 to 2015 and at 2.1% per annum from 2015 to 2030;traditional biomass  is not included in these estimates.⁴

In reality, the major changes in the pattern of energy consumption is trend towards more use of gas and switching from more pollutive non-renewables such as coal to gas. This is evident in about 30% global increase of gas comsumption in decade from 2,268.2 bcm in 1998 to 2,938.0 bcm in 2008.⁵

In fact, all available projection for 2030 indicates a significant increase in absolute figures for all types of fossil energy consumption especially gas and coal as evident in the following table.

As evident in various parts of the world, such destruction will affect all the aspects of life to have a major impact on all of us, of course, in different forms and to a varying extent. Of these, one example is the survival of all islands and thus island states and many coastal areas as a result of the rising sea level. Another example is the degradation of agriculture because of many factors such as water shortages, increased damage to agricultural products by insects having longer than normal life spans, low yields and high food prices. Yet another example is decreasing economic activities and thus disappearance of many jobs caused by the limiting  employment opportunities especially in the fields directly affected global warming (e.g.,agriculture and fishery). Finally, a major example is expanding health-related problems (e.g., higher rates of respiratory, heart and skin diseases).

Added to this, at the end we, the world's citizens, will have to foot a heavy bill for the unavoidable and inevitable clean up should we decide to prevent an environmental disaster to question the survival of life on earth in all forms( humans, animals and plants). We should be prepared to pay a little more today to switch to clean energy in order to save a lot in the future.

² EIA, International Energy  Outlook (IEO) 2009 (Washington, D>C.: EIA 2009), p.123

³ IEA, p.506.

⁴ EIA, pp.267 and 268

⁵ BP. BP Statistical Review of Energy of Worls Energy June 2009 (London: BP, 2009), p.27.